Predicting global climate change: mission impossible

In the current issue of Science magazine, two University of Washington scientists suggest that we "call off the quest" for predicting global temperature changes, and that political decisions should not be made based on climate models.

For 20 years now, scientists have been working on predicting how much the average global temperature will increase when carbon dioxide levels reach double the pre-industrial levels. For all the effort, the predictions are not getting any more accurate -- current estimates range between 2.0 and 8.0 degrees C.

The article states that even the best computer models have too much uncertainty; this uncertainty comes from feedbacks in the system that change the way the system changes. For example, the sun is melting the polar ice caps. As they melt, they reflect less of the suns energy, changing the balance. These types of feedbacks cause uncertainty.

The article does not dispute that global temperatures will continue to rise; but nonetheless, the article will likely fuel the critics of the the climate change movement. link